Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on August 19, 2020
Today, at 07:00 (London time), the UK published data on the consumer price index. The indicator exceeded economists’ expectations, and inflation in the United Kingdom rose stronger than forecasts. Data for July showed an increase of 1%, while it was expected that they will remain at the level of 0.6%. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose by 0.4%, although it was expected to fall by minus 0.1%. It also exceeded economists’ forecasts and the retail price index. It was assumed that retail prices in the UK will grow by 1.2%, but in fact the growth was 1.6%. These reports were so positive due to the reopening of businesses and institutions after the removal of restrictive measures due to COVID-19.
In yesterday’s trading, the GBP/USD currency pair broke through the key resistance zone of 1.3184-1.3200, closing Tuesday’s session at 1.3234. A very positive factor for the British currency, which allows us to hope for further growth of the quote. In the light of accelerated growth in consumer prices, expectations that the Bank of England will reset the main interest rate or make it negative have significantly decreased, and this is another reason to expect the instrument’s upward dynamics to continue. Now, much of the future direction of GBP/USD will depend on the Fed’s minutes published today. Let me remind you that at 19:00 (London time), the publication of the last meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will take place. This is a very important and significant moment. If the US currency receives support due to the protocols, the pair will return to 1.3184 and end today’s trading lower, the breakdown of the resistance zone of 1.3184-1.3200 will be considered false, which will give grounds to expect a further decline in the exchange rate to the nearest target at 1.3135. As you can see on the chart, this is where the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator passes, which can provide strong support and return the price to growth. At the very least, a good bounce up can occur from Tenkan.
The pair is currently trading near 1.3250. If the Fed minutes disappoint investors and are won back against the US dollar, the GBP/USD will continue to rise, with the targets being 1.3300, 1.3320, 1.3340 and 1.3380. It is too early to talk about higher prices.
Despite the fact that today is only the middle of the trading week, the pair has already grown decently. Market participants clearly do not have the desire to buy the US currency. In truth, although the FOMC minutes are a very important event that can significantly affect the price dynamics of the US dollar, it is unlikely that the picture will undergo drastic changes.
Most likely, the upward trend for the pair will continue, at least towards the goals outlined above. Given this assumption, the main trading idea for the GBP/USD pair is buying, which is better to plan after a short-term decline in the area of 1.3210-1.3180. For those who trade at the breakout levels, you can try to buy at the breakout of the current highs of 1.3265, but with small goals, in the area of 1.3300-1.3320.
If the pair cannot continue to grow and bearish candle analysis patterns start appearing under 1.3260 on the 4-hour and/or hourly charts, this will be a signal to open short positions, which I recommend setting goals in the price zone of 1.3215-1.3200.
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