Greetings, dear colleagues!
It’s time to consider a fairly interesting currency pair AUD/USD, and since the last trading week recently ended, we will start with its results.
First of all, what you need to pay attention to is that the pair failed to gain a foothold above the most important psychological and technical level of 0.7000. Secondly, after repeated attempts, the quote was not able to go up from the weekly cloud of the Ichimoku indicator. Both of these factors should be considered negative for the Australian currency, which means that it is possible to reduce the “Aussie”, after its three-month growth. However, it is worth emphasizing that much will depend on the results of the current week.
Let me remind you that today the market will close the first month of summer. Tomorrow, the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be published. On Thursday, July 2, data on the US labor market will be released. There is little doubt that these events will have a significant impact on the price dynamics of the US dollar across the entire spectrum of the market. Against this background, the AUD/USD currency pair will not be an exception.
So far, as can be seen on the chart, an attempt was made to enter the Ichimoku cloud again, and again it was not successful. However, as already noted, all the most important events are still ahead, which means that both variants of price movement are possible.
In the case of an ascending scenario, the bulls on the “Aussie” need to close the week within the cloud. And this is the minimum task. In the future, you need to bring the price up from the cloud, simultaneously breaking through the resistance of sellers at 0.6977, 0.7014, and 0.7063. In my opinion, these are very difficult tasks, for which several factors must coincide against the US dollar.
When it comes to COVID-19, the United States continues to hold the lead in the number of daily coronavirus infections. This is about 40,000 new infections. In Australia, this rampant pandemic is not observed, everything is much calmer there.
Now about the bearish scenario. To implement it, players on a downward course first need to break through the support at 0.6777. If this turns out to be bearish for AUD/USD, the pair risks falling to the area of 0.6718-0.6693, where the Tenkan line and 50 simple moving average are located, respectively.
On the daily chart, the pair is consolidating under the Tenkan line, and so far it can not break through higher. This behavior of the price suggests its decline to the price area of 0.6811-0.6801, where the trading lows are located on June 22 and the Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator passes. A lot may be decided in this price zone, but a clearer outline will be clear in the event of a breakout of the support of 0.6777. If the breakdown of this level turns out to be true, further decline of the “Aussie” will acquire a much greater probability.
At this point, I am more inclined to sell AUD/USD, which I recommend opening in the event of a rise to 0.6880, and (or) after breaking the level of 0.6840, on a rollback to this mark.
If there are signals for growth near the listed support levels, you can try buying, but for now, it is better with small goals of 30-45 points.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com